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For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a resolute approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering threats of "severe ramifications" during the summer should Vladimir Putin carried on hindering peace negotiations, he eventually imposed substantial sanctions on Russia's biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially hindered Putin's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, via his newly presented 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats without Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's proposal would essentially benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in jeopardy. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan effectively undermine that essential independence. What represents a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, as if giving Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will appease the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a charred region of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to weaken it so it stops acts as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in status the presently separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk province. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in over a ten years of fighting, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, leaving Russian forces a open path to Kyiv if he eventually choose to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would make renewed hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to cut the numbers of its military from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, the proposal imposes no such limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate leadership as extremists, the proposal declares: "Any Nazi ideology and actions must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, Trump places no obligation that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated equivalent treaties in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should we have confidence in Putin now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. While the proposal promises a "immediate joint military response" if Russia renew its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics include unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation Nato membership but also preclude member states from deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his diminished military, restocking, and attacking again.

World Response

Another side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. Yet different from a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of alliance members, such as Trump, to react militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not