Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.