🔗 Share this article

Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.

As per Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against the Red Devils.

His opener came from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.